中国利率期限结构对经济周期波动的预测能力检验——基于动态Probit模型的研究途径

本文对我国利率期限结构对经济周期波动的预测能力进行实证研究.首先,利用时差相关分析方法选择我国经济周期波动的利差先行指标.然后,利用基于利差先行指标的动态Probit模型检验我国利率期限结构对经济周期波动状态的预测能力,并且对静态Probit模型和动态Probit模型、各种动态Probit模型之间的预测效果也进行了比较.研究结果表明,我国利率期限结构变动对未来3个月的经济周期波动状态具有比较稳定的指示作用,利用经济状态先验信息的动态Probit模型的预测效果优于静态Probit模型.     

Assessing the effectiveness of a technical assistance program: The case of maize seed relief to vulnerable households in Zimbabwe

The recent economic downturn in Zimbabwe impoverished the majority of households. To assist vulnerable rural households improve their food security, the British Department for International Development implemented a seed relief program from 2003/2004 to 2005/2006 that emphasized recycling of maize open pollinated varieties (OPV). Using data collected from 597 households in six districts in 2006, this study assesses the effectiveness of the program in terms of its targeting of beneficiaries, the flow of information from participating NGOs to beneficiaries on the need to recycle the seeds, and the level of recycling done at the end of the program. The empirical results suggest that the targeting method participating NGOs use inadvertently excludes relatively vulnerable households while including large proportions of relatively well-endowed households in the program. The choice of varieties to distribute is guided more by the ecological adaptability of available commercial seeds and less by preferences of beneficiaries. Notwithstanding the fact that seed selection information is critical in encouraging beneficiaries to recycle distributed seed, not all of them received it. In conclusion, it may be stated that the program undoubtedly contributed to increased food productivity by vulnerable households but its overall effectiveness could have been enhanced through (i) the involvement of the beneficiaries in the choice of types of seed to be distributed, (ii) better targeting of beneficiaries, and (iii) improved information flow between NGOs and beneficiaries.     

高技术产业化政策对我国企业竞争能力的影响分析

近年来,我国政府制定了大量高技术产业化政策,推动高技术产业发展,大大提高了企业研发水平和竞争能力。基于有序probit模型并结合某五年规划期间的实证数据,对我国高技术产业化政策下的企业竞争能力进行分析,结果发现：从技术角度来看,高技术产业化政策显著提高了企业技术水平,尤其是中型企业的提高非常明显。从产品角度来看,高技术产业化政策的实施难以有效提高企业产品质量水平和成本竞争力。为此建议：继续推动和完善高技术产业化政策,强化对高技术产业化专项的管理,把企业产品质量和管理水平作为重要的考核指标,加强监督,并对项目实施后的效果进行总结评价,最终提升高技术企业的综合竞争能力。     

创新绩效角度的战略性新兴产业发展实证研究——以新能源产业为例

文章以新能源产业为例,根据《战略性新兴产业分类》,从中国工业企业数据库遴选出归属该产业的企业。利用微观企业层面的大样本数据,对企业创新绩效进行综合性研究。基于面板Probit计量模型的估计结果表明：企业的R&D投入、出口与否和企业知识积累对企业的创新产出有明显正向效应。企业规模、企业资本密集度等因素对创新产出的重要性因所有制不同而不同。政府需要采取有针对性的政策来诱导企业尽可能多地进行R&D投入,扩大出口以及增加企业本身知识积累。     

林农参与林业专业合作社的意愿与调查分析

基于对浙江省龙泉市林业专业合作社深入的调研进行实证分析。根据所得数据描述性的理论分析和统计分析结果构建的Probit模型对影响林农参与林业专业合作社的因素进行深入分析的结果表明:林农参与合作社的意愿受农户户主的年龄、林业收入占家庭总收入的比例、林产品销售问题、对林业专业合作社的了解程度等因素的影响。在此基础上,提出应该继续加强林业合作社的宣传工作、提高合作社的产品营销能力等发展农民专业合作社的相关对策建议。     

Does agricultural cooperative membership influence off-farm work decisions of farm couples?

Membership in agricultural cooperatives may influence intra-household decisions regarding the division of household labor. However, the linkages between cooperative membership and labor allocation remain unexplored. To fill this gap, we examine the impact of cooperative membership on off-farm work decisions of couples engaged in farming, using data collected from 595 banana farmers in China. The recursive bivariate probit model and endogenous-treatment Poisson regression model are employed to address the self-selection bias inherent in cooperative membership. The results show that cooperative membership increases the probability of participating in off-farm work by 38% for husbands and 31% for wives. Having large households reduces the probability of husbands but increases that of wives working off-farm. Cooperative membership is also associated with more time spent on off-farm work and higher earnings for both husbands and wives. Our findings point to the potential of agricultural cooperatives to increase farm couples’ off-farm employment, thus increasing household income and quality of life.     

消费者对可追溯性农产品的购买意愿研究

本文采用成都市区超市消费者的实证调查素材,运用Probit模型分析消费者购买可追溯性农产品意愿的影响因素,结果发现有显著影响的因素主要是消费者的职业、消费者对可追溯性农产品的认知程度及可追溯性标识的影响前度等.     

Testing identifying assumptions in bivariate probit models

This paper considers the bivariate probit model's identifying assumptions: linear index specification, joint normality of errors, instrument exogeneity, and relevance. First, we develop sharp testable equalities that detect all possible observable violations of the assumptions. Second, we propose an easy-to-implement testing procedure for the model's validity using existing inference methods for intersection bounds. The test achieves correct empirical size and performs well in detecting violations of the conditions in simulations. Finally, we provide a road map on what to do when the bivariate probit model is rejected, including novel bounds for the average treatment effect that relax the normality assumption.     

农户绿色生产技术采纳的邻里效应分析 ——基于农技推广和农户认知的调节作用

研究目的：以测土配方施肥技术为例，探究农户采纳绿色生产技术行为的邻里效应，分析农技推广与农户认知在农户邻里效应中的调节作用，为加快绿色生产技术推广政策落地提供参考。研究方法：内生转换Probit模型。研究结果：（1)农户测土配方施肥技术采纳行为中存在明显的邻里效应，邻里效应中群体学习、交流机会显著正向促进农户采纳测土配方施肥技术；（2)农技推广对农户测土配方施肥技术采纳行为中邻里效应有显著正向和负向调节作用，农户认知对农户测土配方施肥技术采纳行为中邻里效应有显著负向调节作用；（3)农户具有技术接纳者和技术传播者的“双重身份”，且技术采纳可将邻里效应中群体学习、社会规范、交流机会的概率分别提升3.65%、3.82%、4.12%。研究结论：为了促进农户对绿色生产技术的采纳，建议培养农业生产示范户，充分发挥邻里效应；深化多元政企合作，形成技术扩散乘数效应。     

社会监督和政府监管对城市地下管线安全影响研究——来自地下管线安全事故微观数据

城市地下管线安全成为决定城市能否高质量发展的关键因素，备受政府和学界关注，但社会监督和政府监管能否提升城市地下管线安全仍是亟须研究的重要话题。文章利用全国各省市2018年4月-2020年9月的月度微观数据和百度搜索指数等数据，采取有序Probit模型分析社会监督和政府监管对中国城市地下管线安全的影响。研究发现：社会监督对地下管线安全作用主要体现在低风险等级领域，政府监管能够有效解决社会监督的中高风险等级的效果不足问题。同时，政府监管手段和强度应有的放矢，将高强度政府监管资源重点分配在高风险地区，不能进行简单“平均化”处理，否则将削弱政府监管效果。通过异质性分析，建议政府应该以空间分布和事故类型实施分类监管策略，避免超前投入大量监管资源，造成资源浪费。